8 months down, 25 to go?
After BTC/USD lost over 50% of those modest new all-time highs, the debate around the relationship of price to Bitcoin‘s four-year halving cycles changed.
Now, however, the price action is less predictable. While the factors controlling it are many and varied, it does not necessarily mean that bulls will get their break at a different point in the current cycle.
Brandt‘s data shows that the next impulse wave for Bitcoin may not be until May 2024 — which almost exactly lines up with the next block subsidy halving.
Historically, this would be a year too early for a blow-off top, but it could still deliver a 10-times price increase based on historical patterns which go beyond halving cycles.
“The past two times BTC advanced 10X or more required an average of 33 months before the next stage of the rocket kicked in,” Brandt explained.
“If history repeats itself (which I do not believe it will), the next rocket stage will be ignited in May 2024.”
One step at a time
In terms of what could keep Bitcoin suppressed until then, analysts have pointed the finger overwhelmingly at macro triggers.
Central bank tightening, if successful, should logically pressure risk assets. At the same time, a prolonged period of high inflation and low-interest rates likewise paints a gloomy picture for Bitcoin — at least in the short term.
Further out, the status quo could change once the initial shock of these events subsides. Both Arthur Hayes, ex-CEO of exchange BitMEX, and Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone are conspicuously more confident about Bitcoin on longer timeframes than in the coming months.
“BTC is a risk-on safehaven. Gold is a risk-off safehaven. Bitcoin as an untested theoretical safehaven, this year will be the first proper market test of it,” statistician Willy Woo forecasted in February about the 2022 outlook.
“In a war time scenario, risk-off is the first market response, the second market response is towards safehavens.”
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
- ^ BTC (cointelegraph.com)
- ^ highlighted (twitter.com)
- ^ much lower than expected (cointelegraph.com)
- ^ coming once per four-year cycle (cointelegraph.com)
- ^ Bitcoin slides below $44K in April first as trader warns ‘something is off’ with BTC (cointelegraph.com)
- ^ once the initial shock of these events (cointelegraph.com)
- ^ conspicuously more confident about Bitcoin (cointelegraph.com)
- ^ forecasted (twitter.com)